Whenever Ohtani takes the mound, his ERA and strikeout numbers look like those of a Cy Young Award candidate, but when looking at his accumulated innings, they are fewer than those of his competitors, which is a cause for concern. Even as of August 12, 2026, the key lies in how many innings he can stably accumulate until the end of the season, rather than a dominant performance in a single game.
To start with the conclusion Ohtani's chances of winning the Cy Young Award are wide open, but this is contingent on accumulating close to the qualifying innings and maintaining his health in the second half.The biggest variable in the vote remains how much qualitative superiority, such as an average ERA of 0.73, will offset the lack of innings pitched.
Is Ohtani capable of winning the Cy Young Award? Based on his current performance, he is a contender.
According to the records introduced on May 28, 2026, Ohtani recorded 4 wins and 2 losses over 49 innings in 8 games, with an ERA of 0.73, a WHIP of 0.84, and 54 strikeouts. His average fastball velocity was also introduced as 157 km/h, or over 98 mph, leaving a very strong impression in terms of pitching performance alone.
However, competitors Christopher Sanchez and Jacob Mishirowski were ahead of Ohtani with 72 and 64 innings, respectively. Therefore, the current situation is Ohtani, led by a low ERA and high strikeouts, versus starting pitchers with more accumulated inningsIt is close to a showdown.
What Ohtani needs is not simply more dominant pitching, but repeating that dominant pitching over more innings.
| Comparison items | Ohtani | Competitive pitcher case |
|---|---|---|
| Cumulative innings introduced | 49 innings | Sanchez 72 innings, Misiorowski 64 innings |
| ERA | 0.73 | Detailed figures not presented in comparison data |
| Notable strengths | WHIP 0.84, 54 strikeouts | Accumulate more starting innings |
How disadvantageous is a lack of qualifying innings in Cy Young Award voting?
In Major League Baseball, the qualifying innings for a pitcher are based on 162 innings, which is the same as the number of regular season games played by a team. However, since the Cy Young Award is not determined solely by whether a pitcher has met the qualifying innings requirement, the structure does not make it impossible to vote simply because the pitcher has not met the requirement.
However, a lack of innings is not a minor weakness. Since the vote evaluates how long a starting pitcher has contributed to the team and how well they held the mound in difficult games, if a player with a similar ERA pitches more innings, Ohtani could be at a disadvantage.
The six-man rotation and two-way play reduce Ohtani's innings.
In a standard five-man rotation, one can expect about 32 to 33 starts per season, but in a six-man rotation, the intervals between starts lengthen, and the total number of starts may decrease. Furthermore, since Ohtani also plays as a hitter, it is difficult to calculate his innings based solely on his pitching schedule.
Batting schedules affect physical management and recovery plans. If batting pressure is added between starts, the team may conservatively adjust the number of pitches per game or the interval between starts, and if such choices accumulate, the gap with qualifying innings can widen.
Conversely, if his pitching intervals and count stabilize in the second half of the season, and Ohtani pitches over 140 to 160 innings while maintaining an ERA in the low 1s, the weight of the evaluation could change. Ultimately, the Dodgers' management style and Ohtani's own recovery status are variables as important as the statistics.
The second-half ERA and the gap with competitors decide the outcome.
While a 0.73 ERA at the 49-inning mark stands out, the Cy Young Award race is judged based on overall season performance. If his pitching quality drops or walks and hits allowed increase as he rapidly increases his innings in the second half, his early-season strengths could be diluted.
Conversely, even if Sanchez and Misiorovski accumulate more innings, if their ERAs rise while Ohtani maintains a low run rate, there is a possibility that the difference in innings pitched will not determine the vote. In particular, indicators that suppressed the opposing lineup, such as 54 strikeouts and a WHIP of 0.84, are factors that support the reliability of the ERA.
Ohtani was introduced as having recorded a 2.33 ERA over 166 innings in the American League in 2022 and finishing fourth in the Cy Young Award voting. Even if he shows a lower ERA and stronger pitching than he did then, This time, the question is how far he can extend the innings.This can determine the ranking.
How will Tarik Skubal's joining affect Ohtani's chances of winning an award?
The Dodgers were introduced as having acquired Tarik Skubal, who won the American League Cy Young Award for two consecutive years in 2024 and 2025. Skubal recorded 7 wins and 5 losses with an ERA of 2.79 and 116 strikeouts in 16 games during the 2026 season, and then posted a quality start in his Dodgers debut, allowing 2 earned runs over 6 innings.
Scubal's addition deepens the Dodgers' starting rotation, giving them room to avoid demanding excessive innings from Ohtani. While a starting rotation featuring Ohtani, Scubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Blake Snell would be beneficial for team performance, it also presents the challenge for Ohtani to secure sufficient pitching opportunities in the competition for individual awards.
The Dodgers traded away three prospects—Zeier Hoff, River Ryan, and Brady Smith—but retained the players ranked 1st through 3rd according to MLB Pipeline. Considering that Skubal could become a free agent after the 2026 season, this acquisition is primarily a short-term reinforcement and does not directly guarantee Ohtani's Cy Young Award voting results.
Therefore, the outlook as of August 12, 2026 is closer to 'possible, but it is still too early to confirm.'. If Ohtani increases his innings without injury in the second half and maintains an ERA in the low 1s, he could be a strong candidate, but if he falls far short of the qualifying innings, it will not be easy to win all the votes with just dominant pitching.