The reason the New York stock market rebounded after falling for five consecutive trading days is not simply because stock prices became cheap. In the U.S. market on September 11, 2026, investor sentiment revived as international oil prices fell and the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) did not deviate significantly from market expectations.
However, prices have not completely stabilized, nor have concerns about interest rate hikes disappeared. With falling oil prices easing inflationary pressures, the CPI results did not create an additional shock.This is the key background of this rebound.
If we look at the magnitude of the rebound, the Dow saw the largest increase.
All three major indices rose, and the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average closed at 52,573.29, up 509.19 points. Its gain of 0.981 points was higher than that of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
| jisoo | Upside | growth rate | closing price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones 30 | 509.19 points | 0.98% | 52,573.29 |
| S&P 500 | 65.28 points | 0.86% | 7,656.98 |
| NASDAQ | 251.31 points | 0.96% | 26,333.04 |
The S&P 500 closed up 65.28 points at 7,656.98, and the Nasdaq rose 251.31 points to close at 26,333.04. The figures for the day were all As of the close of the U.S. market on September 11, 2026no see.
Falling oil prices have become a signal that the burden of inflation is being lowered.
Brent crude futures for November delivery closed at $104.61 per barrel, down $3.02 from the previous trading day. The decline was 2.811 TP3T, marking the first drop in price in six trading days.
WTI October futures also closed down $2.43 at $100.05 per barrel. It fell 2.371 TP3T, turning bearish for the first time in nine trading days.
Reports that Middle Eastern countries are seeking a temporary agreement regarding shipping operations in the Strait of Hormuz served as the backdrop for the decline in oil prices. In addition, profit-taking sales following the recent surge in oil prices were cited as a factor dragging down prices.
This rebound can be summarized as a result of a temporary recovery in risk asset preference as oil prices stabilized and the CPI did not further shock the market.
The CPI rose, but it wasn't much different from expectations.
The U.S. August CPI rose 0.41 TP3T from the previous month and 3.41 TP3T from the same month last year. While the mere fact that prices rose is burdensome, the fact that the overall CPI growth rate did not deviate significantly from market expectations provided a sense of relief to stock prices.
The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.31 TP3T from the previous month, exceeding the expert forecast of 0.21 TP3T by 0.11 TP3T points. The year-on-year core CPI growth rate was reported at 2.41 TP3T.
The reason food and energy are excluded from the core CPI is due to the high price volatility of these two items. This does not mean that these items are permanently excluded; rather, the indicator is used to mitigate temporary fluctuations and examine underlying price trends.
Stock prices rose not because prices were low.
The reason stock prices rose despite the increase in the CPI is that the market does not look solely at the absolute level of prices. It also reflects how much higher or lower the actual reported figures were compared to expectations, as well as how oil price and interest rate outlooks have changed.
This time, the core CPI slightly exceeded forecasts, but the overall CPI did not deviate significantly from expectations. At the same time, as both Brent and WTI fell, tensions regarding a scenario of increasing inflationary pressure eased somewhat.
Therefore, rather than interpreting the rise on this day as a signal that the price problem has been resolved, Short-term market reaction when negative factors are not as severe as expectedIt fits the trend better to view it this way. The combination of profit-taking and bargain buying after five consecutive trading days of decline also played a role.
You need to look at the Fed's interest rate outlook and Treasury yields separately.
Following the CPI announcement, the market highly priced in the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.251 TP3T points at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting the following week. The CME FedWatch rate futures benchmark odds rose from 72.41 TP3T on September 10 to 86.31 TP3T on the afternoon of September 11.
As expectations for interest rate hikes strengthened, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to the 4.991 TP3T range during the trading session immediately after the CPI announcement. Although it fell to the low-to-mid 4.91 TP3T range after approaching 51 TP3T, the burden of tightening continued in the bond market.
When interest rates rise, the price of existing bonds falls, and the discounting burden applied when converting future earnings of stocks to present value increases. Nevertheless, stock prices rose because the decline in oil prices and relief regarding the CPI on that day acted more strongly than the upward pressure on interest rates.
Points to consider when evaluating this rebound
The recent rise in the New York stock market was characterized by a balanced rebound, with the Dow up 0.981 TP3T, the S&P 500 up 0.861 TP3T, and the Nasdaq up 0.961 TP3T. The main factors were the decline in oil prices—Brent crude down 2.811 TP3T and WTI down 2.371 TP3T—and the fact that the CPI did not deviate significantly from market expectations.
On the other hand, core CPI slightly exceeded forecasts, and the interest rate futures market reflected a probability of a 0.251 point hike up to 86.31 points. The possibility that stock price rebounds and expectations for interest rate hikes could occur simultaneously.This is a characteristic of the market on this day.
Ultimately, when interpreting this trend, one should not view the rise in stock prices in isolation, but rather examine the direction of oil prices, the CPI results compared to expectations, the 10-year Treasury yield, and the FOMC outlook as a package. This rebound was closer to a short-term relief phase created by oil and inflation indicators rather than a move that confirmed the long-term direction.