When forecasts indicate that a typhoon will pass close to Japan, many people assume, "Korea is completely safe this time." However, this judgment is only half correct. This is because the fact that the path bypasses the Korean Peninsula is a completely different concept from having absolutely no impact. Let us summarize the information available so far regarding the location and predicted path of Typhoon Choiwan (Typhoon No. 27), which is currently moving northward in the waters near Guam as of October 3, 2026, as well as the potential indirect impact on the Korean Peninsula.
Where is Typhoon Choiwan (No. 27) right now?
As of 3:00 AM on October 3, Choi Wan is located in the sea near 18.0 degrees North latitude and 144.7 degrees East longitude. With a central pressure of 970 hPa and a maximum wind speed of around 35 m/s, it is analyzed to be quite strong from the beginning of its formation.
It is expected to move to the vicinity of 19.4 degrees North latitude and 145.5 degrees East longitude around 3 p.m. on the same day. Even looking at the changes over a short period, a trend of gradually moving northward is clearly visible.
As the typhoon is currently remaining in waters not far from Guam, it will take more time for it to affect the Korean Peninsula. However, it should be kept in mind that the typhoon's speed and intensity can fluctuate frequently depending on sea surface temperatures and changes in the surrounding pressure system.
How is the expected path being drawn?
Based on the projected paths released so far, there is speculation that Choiwan will pass through the waters south of Japan and then move northeastward. It is expected to reach its strongest intensity around 3:00 AM on October 5, at which time its central pressure is projected to reach 935 hPa and maximum wind speeds of up to 24 m/s. The radius of the strong winds is also expected to expand to nearly 550 km.
From this point onward, it is expected to gradually weaken and move toward the northern high-latitude seas. It is suggested that it is highly likely to transform into an extratropical cyclone within 120 hours of its formation, and there is also a forecast that it could move to the vicinity of 49.6 degrees North latitude and 165.5 degrees East longitude by around 3 a.m. on October 8.
However, all these figures are merely current estimates. Since the direction of a typhoon can change at any time, it is necessary to get into the habit of checking the path again when it is announced a day or two later.
Is there a possibility that it could pass directly through the Korean Peninsula?
Based on the path trajectory so far, it appears unlikely that Choiwan will directly cross the Korean Peninsula. If it maintains its course, passing through the waters south of Japan and heading northeast, the Korean Peninsula is likely to remain outside the typhoon's direct impact zone.
However, we cannot conclude that the Korean Peninsula is completely outside the area of influence. This is because even if you are far from the typhoon's center, the impact of its edges can reach Jeju Island or the East Coast if the radius of strong winds expands. In particular, as the radius of strong winds is expected to expand to 550 km around October 5 when the typhoon reaches its peak intensity, it is difficult to feel safe based solely on distance.
In what specific forms does the indirect effect manifest?
Even if a typhoon does not pass directly through the area, the waves generated by the typhoon travel long distances. As there is a possibility of rogue waves in Jeju Island and the East Coast region, you should take this into account if you are planning coastal activities.
Swell waves are characterized by the fact that they can suddenly surge in even on clear days. It is a mistake to assume that the sea will be calm just because there is no wind or rain. If you are planning to go fishing, swim, or take a walk along the coast, it is safer to frequently check the latest forecast released by the Korea Meteorological Administration.
What are the differences compared to previous typhoons?
Typhoon Surigae, the 26th typhoon that passed by earlier, started with a central pressure of 996 hPa and a maximum wind speed of 20 m/s at the time of formation, and later grew in strength to a maximum of 37 m/s. Unlike this, Choiwan emerged with already strong strength from the initial stages of formation, with a central pressure of 970 hPa and wind speeds of around 35 m/s.
In terms of path patterns, both share the commonality of passing through the waters south of Japan. However, since they are clearly different typhoons in terms of their starting point of strength and speed of change, it is not appropriate to judge Choiwan by directly applying the experience gained from Typhoon Surigae. Even if they share the same path type, the intensity and range of influence of each typhoon must be viewed separately.
How should I check typhoon news going forward?
Typhoon paths are information subject to many variables that can change on a daily basis. The current forecast path and intensity figures are projections based on October 3, and the path will become more accurate as time passes.
It is advisable to regularly check the latest forecasts released by the Korea Meteorological Administration or specialized weather channels, while also ensuring that coastal areas, such as Jeju Island and the East Coast, take precautions against swell waves. Rather than being complacent simply because the path is said to bypass the Korean Peninsula, it is a time when it is necessary to monitor the situation while keeping indirect impacts in mind.
Q&A
Q1. Where is Typhoon Choiwan (No. 27) right now?
As of 3:00 AM on October 3, 2026, it is located in the sea near 18.0 degrees North latitude and 144.7 degrees East longitude, with a central pressure of 970 hPa and a maximum wind speed of around 35 m/s.
Q2. Does Choiwan pass directly through the Korean Peninsula?
Based on the projected paths released so far, a flow passing south of Japan and heading northeast is being discussed, making it unlikely to directly traverse the Korean Peninsula. However, as the path is subject to change, continuous monitoring is necessary.
Q3. Is there absolutely no impact on the Korean Peninsula?
Although the likelihood of a direct hit is low, indirect effects such as rogue waves may occur in Jeju Island and the East Coast region. As the radius of strong winds is expected to expand to up to 550 km, distance alone is not enough to be reassuring.
Q4. When is Choi Wan strongest?
It is expected to reach its strongest intensity around 3 a.m. on October 5, at which time it is projected to reach a central pressure of 935 hPa and a maximum wind speed of 24 m/s.
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Q5. What happens to Choi Wan afterwards?
It is highly likely that it will develop into an extratropical cyclone within 120 hours of its formation, and it is expected to move to high-latitude waters near 49.6 degrees North latitude and 165.5 degrees East longitude by around 3 a.m. on October 8.