My heart sinks whenever news breaks that the EV battery market is undergoing a correction. If you have been keeping a close eye on battery-related stocks, you can't help but feel anxious that you might be missing out on this opportunity.
However, if you take a step back, the battery industry is actually moving in a different direction. While the EV market is slowing down The massive demand for ESS is growing rapidly. And companies that do not miss this trend are actually becoming stronger.
Amidst the EV downturn, ESS and AI data centers present new opportunities.
There is a common misconception here. It is the belief that "since they are battery-related stocks, they will all fall together if electric vehicle demand drops," but this is seeing only part of the picture. In reality, the battery industry's The growth engine is rapidly shifting from EVs to energy storage systems (ESS).
Even looking at the specifics, the difference is clear. With the emergence of large-scale power demand sources such as AI data centers, the demand for ESS batteries is increasing at a tremendous pace. In fact, shipments of ESS batteries for AI data centers are expected to rise from 12 GWh in 2025 to 272 GWh in 2030, and this It means it will grow more than 20 times in 5 years. This scale is sufficient to sufficiently offset the adjustment in the EV market.
The key point is that the driving force behind the growth of the battery industry is shifting from EVs to ESS.
Solid-state Batteries: The Gap Between Expectations and Reality
| Battery value chain stages | Major companies (domestic) | Profitability characteristics |
|---|---|---|
| Cell maker (finished battery product) | LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, SK On | Quality and customer diversification are important |
| Cathode material (cost of 40% or higher) | Lithium, Nickel, and Cobalt Companies | Sensitive to material price fluctuations |
| Cathode material (mainly graphite) | Graphite and carbon companies | Graphite supply stability issue |
| Separator (Safety Technology) | Separator specialist company | High technological barriers, long-term benefits |
There is one major expectation among battery investors. Solid-state batteries will be a game changerIt is the belief that once this technology is commercialized, energy density will increase and charging speeds will also speed up. However, the reality is much more complex than this expectation.
The first fact you need to know here is Commercialization was originally scheduled for 2024–2025, but most of it has been postponed.According to a McKinsey report from January 2026, commercial-scale mass production of all-solid-state batteries for electric vehicles is It will be after 2030That is what we expect. It amounts to being delayed by 4 to 5 years already.
Then why is it taking so long? The cause lies not in the technology itself, but in the mass production stage. Although controlling ion conductivity in the laboratory was successful, the problem of rising defect rates persists as production attempts are being made in large quantities. No matter how good the technology is, it cannot be commercialized unless the yield (productivity) is improved. Currently, most companies are spending time at this stage.
There are more realistic issues as well. The price of existing liquid batteries, particularly LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries, has dropped to $70 to $80 per kWh. For solid-state batteries, which will naturally be expensive initially, to compete in this price range, technology alone is not enough. This means that it will take time to secure cost competitiveness as well.
The highly profitable parts of the battery value chain
“The idea that "all battery-related stocks rise together" is something said when one does not understand the structure of the battery industry. In reality, Profitability varies widely depending on the location.
There are four core materials used to make a battery: cathode material, anode material, electrolyte, and separator. Among these, the cost of The cathode material accounts for more than 40%.However, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese are included in this. It is a structure where the profitability of these companies is directly affected by changes in material prices.
The point to note here is Whether cell makers (companies that manufacture finished battery products) diversify their customersFor example, LG Energy Solution does business with Tesla, GM, and Hyundai Motor, while Samsung SDI has luxury car manufacturers such as BMW, Audi, and Rivian as its main clients. Diversifying clients in this way can reduce the impact of a single client's poor performance on overall results.
The reason Samsung SDI is drawing attention: Its near-monopoly position in the ESS market.
If there is one company that battery investors are paying attention to recently, it is undoubtedly Samsung SDI. Why is that? We have secured a surprisingly high market share in the government's AI distribution network ESS project.
Specifically, in the government project consisting of six consortia, Samsung SDI's battery market share is 66%
Moreover, orders received from major clients like Tesla alone are estimated to exceed 6 trillion won. Orders of this magnitude can significantly boost the company's performance over the next three to four years. In fact, Samsung SDI is expected to turn a profit starting in the second quarter of 2026.
Securities firms' target stock prices also reflect this. Mirae Asset Securities We have set a 12-month target price of 1 million won for Samsung SDI.This valuation is based on crediting the growth of ESS and AI data centers. Of course, there are firms like IM Securities that rate it lower at 700,000 won, but the overall trend is correct in betting on ESS growth.
Is Now the Right Time to Enter? A Wise Investment Strategy
There is one more common misconception. “If the future of battery-related stocks is bright, you should invest right now.”That is the idea, but investing is not that simple. In fact, a phased entry is much wiser.
The first entry timing is 2026~2027
The next step is Replacing the portfolio with solid-state related stocks after 2028By this point, yield data from the pilot line will likely be well-organized, and it will be clear which companies are properly prepared. By moving sequentially, you can avoid being swayed by short-term adjustments while ensuring you do not miss opportunities for technology transition.
Finally, there is one thing you must remember. The most important factor in selecting battery-related stocks is not the theme, but the factor. In other words, this means you must carefully examine actual indicators such as the scale of ESS orders, facility utilization rates, customer diversification, and cost competitiveness. You should not rely solely on news that a company "possesses all-solid-state technology.".